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外媒:美元正在大量涌入中国

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发表于 2021-02-23 20:59 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-dollars-are-flooding-chinas-economy

Dollars Are Flooding Into China At A Record Pace

至少根据高盛偏爱的外汇流量衡量标准,促使中国进行震荡贬值的中国资本外流是遥不可及的记忆。

查看最新一轮的SAFE数据,高盛的中国经济学家发现,1月份的净流入约为350亿美元,而去年12月为930亿美元,累计创下历史新高。与商品贸易相关的外汇流入仍然强劲,而外国对岸债券的购买在一月份进一步上升(即使通过股票交易计划出现了适度的流出)。

主要亮点:

1月份,在岸直接现货交易产生了240亿美元的净流入,而新近进入和取消的远期交易则产生了160亿美元的净流入。国家外汇管理局关于“跨境人民币流动”的另一个数据集显示,国内银行从离岸到在岸的人民币净支付额为40亿美元。这意味着,根据高盛的“首选外汇流量衡量”,1月份的总流入量为350亿美元,略低于2020年12月创纪录的930亿美元的水平,但仍是自2014年初以来第二高的月份!



那么,这一切美元流都去了什么呢?从组成部分看,外国人购买中国债券的速度加快:外国人持有的债券在1月增加了340亿美元,而12月增加了250亿美元,这被与沪港通相关的外汇净流出所抵消。 1月份,股票连通计划流出了340亿美元。

同时,与商品贸易顺差相关的流入量在一月份仍保持强劲,为420亿美元,而去年12月为610亿美元。尽管尚未获得一月份的商品贸易数据,但农历新年假期前后的季节性表明,由于进口商倾向于在假期前提前进行采购,因此一月份的贸易顺差可能会减少。 1月与服务贸易相关的外汇流出为70亿美元,而12月为90亿美元。请注意,一月份的贸易数据将在三月份的一月至二月合并发布,但高盛的分析表明,出口商的外汇兑换率可能会在第一季度保持较高水平。

顺便提一句,上周五,有新闻报道称国家外汇管理局提到政策制定者将“探索允许个人利用每年5万美元外汇兑换额度投资离岸股票和保险产品的方法”。这表明,鉴于人民币升值和持续的流入压力,政策制定者倾向于进一步放开流出,但提及“探索”表明该政策的实际实施可能还很遥远。

至于中国的官方外汇储备(本月初在单独的中国人民银行数据集内发布),1月份的外汇储备为3.211万亿美元,比12月份低60亿美元。然而,根据高盛的说法,所有下降都是由于外汇估值的影响,1月份外汇储备减少了80亿美元,因此,在调整了外汇估值影响后,外汇储备在1月份又增加了20亿美元。

然而,对于所有外汇流入而言,也许真实的故事是“其他”货币在做什么。正如彭博社的叶谢所指出的那样,最新的人民币结算数据表明,中国为促进人民币在跨境贸易和服务中的使用,以及减少对美元的依赖而做出的努力已经树立了另一个里程碑:“ 1月份,银行为客户进行的外汇交易中,以人民币计价的付款和收据从四年前的16%激增至创纪录的44%。”同时,美元的使用率也从74%下降至51%。

另一方面,全球人民币使用率仍然顽固地处于低位:根据全球银行间金融协会的一项分析,尽管人民币支付激增,但它们却占据了全球市场份额的2.4%,而美元则是38%。电信。

不过,即使它还有很长的路要走,但这种大流行还是加速了中国进一步推动人民币国际化的步伐,这是其挑战美国经济主导地位的雄心之一。正如谢总结所言,“北京一直在抱怨美国滥用其作为非常规政策的储备货币发行国的特权,北京很高兴看到它迄今取得的成就。”


The capital outflows from China that prompted the country to engage in a shock devaluation are a distant memory, at least according to Goldman's preferred gauge of FX flows.

Looking at the latest round of SAFE data, Goldman's Chinese economists find net inflows of around US$35BN in January, vs US$93BN in December last year, cumulatively the highest on record. Goods trade related FX inflows remained strong, while foreign buying of onshore bonds rose further in January (even though there were modest outflows through the stock connect program).

Key highlights:

In January, there was $24BN in net inflows via onshore outright spot transactions, and another $16BN in net inflow via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions. Another SAFE dataset on "cross-border RMB flows" shows that domestic banks saw net RMB payment of $4BN from offshore to onshore. This means that according to Goldman's "preferred FX flow measure" there was a total of $35BN in January inflows, somewhat slower than the record high level of US$93bn in December 2020, but still the second highest month since early 2014!

So what did all this dollar flow go to? Looking at the components, foreign buying of Chinese bonds accelerated: Foreigners' holding of bonds rose $34BN in January vs. a $25BN increase in December, which was offset by the net FX outflows related to the stock connect program. The stock connect program saw US$34bn outflows in January.

Meanwhile, China's goods-trade surplus related inflows remained strong at $42BN in January, vs $61BN in December last year. While the January goods trade data is not yet available, seasonality around the Chinese New Year holiday suggests trade surplus could be smaller in January as importers tend to front-load purchases ahead of the holiday. Services trade related FX outflow in January was $7BN, vs $9BN in December. Note that January trade data will be released as January-February combined in March, but Goldman's analysis suggests exporter FX conversion ratio is likely to stay high in Q1.

As an aside, last Friday, news reports said SAFE mentioned policymakers would "explore ways to allow individuals to utilize the annual 50K USD FX conversion quota to invest in offshore equities and insurance products". This signals policymakers are leaning towards further liberalizing outflows in light of CNY appreciation and continued inflow pressures, but the mention of "exploration" suggests the actual implementation of this policy is probably still far away.

As for China's official FX reserves (released earlier in the month in a separate PBOC dataset), these stood at US$3,211bn in January, $6BN lower than December. However, according to Goldman all of the decline and then some was due to FX valuation effects which reduced FX reserves by $8BN in January so after adjusting for FX valuation effect, FX reserves rose by another $2Nn in January.

Yet for all the FX inflows, perhaps the real story is what that "other" currency is doing. As Bloomberg Ye Xie notes, the latest yuan settlement data showed that China’s efforts to push for more use of yuan in cross-border trade and services -- and reduce its reliance on the dollar --has set another milestone: "The percentage of the payments and receipts denominated in yuan in total FX transactions by banks for their clients surged to a record 44% in January, from 16% four years ago." Meanwhile, in a mirror image, the usage of the dollar declined to 51% from 74%.

On the other hand, global usage of the yuan still remains stubbornly low: while yuan payments have jumped, they accounted for 2.4% of the global market share, compared with the dollar’s 38%, according to an analysis from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications.

Still, even if it still has a long way to go, the pandemic has accelerated China’s move to further internationalize the yuan, part of its ambition to challenge the U.S.’s economic dominance. As Xie concludes, "Beijing, which has been complaining about the U.S. abusing its privilege as the issuer of the reserve currency with unconventional policies, would be pleased to see what it has achieved so far."

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