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纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

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发表于 2020-07-01 10:19 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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本帖最后由 zzaa119 于 2020-07-01 12:15 编辑

美国《纽约时报》6月30日发表文章,题为《北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库》。
上周,当美国和俄罗斯谈判代表在维也纳会晤,讨论延长两国之间仍然存在的最后一项主要核武器控制条约时,美国官员拿出一份令俄罗斯同行吃惊的机密简报,内容是关于新的、具有威胁性的核军力——不是俄罗斯的,而是中国的。

通过这些尚未在美国公开的情报,美国总统特朗普希望使俄罗斯与美国一道,共同推动中国加入《新削减战略武器条约》。在这一过程中,特朗普政府将规模虽小但日益强大的中国核武库(规模仍只有美国或俄罗斯的1/5)描绘为美俄领导人应该共同面对的新威胁。

美国传递的信息很明确:特朗普不会续签任何没有中国加入的重大军控条约。许多外部专家质疑,中国的核武建设——被评估为能力更大而非数量更多——是否像美国政府所坚持的那样具有威胁性。

毫无疑问,中国正在更新其军火库,并且可能在重新考虑保持“最小威慑”的战略。但是,中国只部署了300枚远程核武器,而根据《新削减战略武器条约》,美俄应将各自部署的核弹头保持在1550枚以下。因此,专家表示,在任何谈判中,北京都有可能坚持在同意任何约束之前,将其核力量扩大5倍。到目前为止,中国表示无意讨论任何约束。

“理论上讲,将中国拉入这一条约是个好主意。实践中呢?这是不可能的。”美国前国防部长盖茨本月在战略与国际研究中心说。中国根本没有参与的动机,如果特朗普继续目前的路线,他最终将邀请“中国制造比我们认为的多得多的核武器,达到与美国相当的水平”。

来源:大卫·桑格等,环球时报-环球网/ 刘德(译)
英文原版,很有意识,能看到美国的无奈。如果纽约时报报道属实的话,俄国人态度也比较暧昧,俄国人会找我们谈的
A New Superpower Competition Between Beijing and Washington: China’s Nuclear Buildup
The Trump administration is portraying the small but increasingly potent Chinese arsenal — still only one-fifth the size of the United States’ or Russia’s — as the big new threat.

When negotiators from the United States and Russia met in Vienna last week to discuss renewing the last major nuclear arms control treaty that still exists between the two countries, American officials surprised their counterparts with a classified briefing on new and threatening nuclear capabilities — not Russia’s, but China’s.

The intelligence had not yet been made public in the United States, or even shared widely with Congress. But it was part of an effort to get the Russians on board with President Trump’s determination to prod China to participate in New START, a treaty it has never joined. Along the way, the administration is portraying the small but increasingly potent Chinese nuclear arsenal — still only one-fifth the size of those fielded by the United States or Russia — as the new threat that Mr. Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia should confront together.

Marshall Billingslea, Mr. Trump’s new arms control negotiator, opened his classified briefing, officials said, by describing the Chinese program as a “crash nuclear buildup,” a “highly alarming effort” to gain parity with the far larger arsenals that Russia and the United States have kept for decades.

The American message was clear: Mr. Trump will not renew any major arms control treaty that China does not also join — dangling the possibility that Mr. Trump would abandon New START altogether if he did not get his way. The treaty expires in February, just weeks after the next presidential inauguration.
Many outside experts question whether China’s buildup — assessed as bringing greater capability more than greater numbers — is as fast, or as threatening, as the Trump administration insists.

The intelligence on Beijing’s efforts remains classified, a senior administration official said, noting that sharing such data is not unusual among the world’s major nuclear weapons states. But that means it was given to an adversary with whom the United States is conducting daily, low-level conflict — including cyberattacks, military probes by warplanes and Russian aggression in Ukraine. And that was before reports surfaced that a Russian military intelligence unit had put bounties on American and allied troops in Afghanistan.
The American official said the administration would try to declassify and make public some of the assessment about China.

Nuclear weapons have suddenly become a new area of contention between Mr. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, and there are many reasons to believe that even if the three superpowers are not yet in a full-scale arms race, what is taking place in negotiating rooms around the world may soon start one.

The Russians have publicly offered a straight, five-year extension of New START, which would not require congressional approval. But Mr. Trump is clearly betting that he can find common ground with Mr. Putin in confronting the Chinese.
Without question, the Chinese are improving their arsenal, and may be rethinking the idea of holding a “minimal deterrent” — just enough to assure that if they were ever attacked they could take out cities in Russia, Europe or the United States. But they have only 300 long-range nuclear weapons deployed, compared with 1,550 each that the other two superpowers are allowed under New START. So there is the very real possibility, experts say, that in any negotiation, Beijing will insist on quintupling its nuclear force before it agrees to any constraints. So far, China has said it is not interested in discussing any limitations.

“The notion of trying to pull the Chinese into that agreement is, in theory, a good idea. In practice? Impossible,” former Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said this month at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“The Chinese have no incentive whatsoever to participate,” said Mr. Gates, who as the C.I.A. director confronted China over its sale to Iran of missiles designed to carry nuclear warheads. And if Mr. Trump continues on the current course, Mr. Gates said, he will end up essentially inviting “the Chinese to build dramatically more, far more, nuclear weapons than we think they have at the current time to get level with the United States.”

Nuclear weapons are joining the panoply of issues — including trade deals, banning Chinese students and wiring the world for 5G networks — that Mr. Trump has put at the center of a series of U.S.-China standoffs.
Mr. Trump is no student of nuclear history, but in some ways he is replaying a moment from the 1960s, when Mao Zedong was seeking nuclear weapons. President Lyndon B. Johnson’s administration briefly considered inviting the Soviets to participate in a joint strike at Lop Nor, the Chinese nuclear testing site, to prevent the country from joining the nuclear club. But the Americans abandoned the idea, determining it was simply too dangerous. A top secret State Department study, since declassified, concluded in April 1964 that the risk of a Chinese nuclear capability “is not such as to justify the undertaking of actions which would involve great political costs or high military risks.”

The United States has lived with a Chinese “minimal deterrent” for 56 years.

Now Mr. Billingslea argues that new activities underway at Lop Nor, combined with China’s far greater reach in space and at sea, once again put America at risk. The Chinese, not surprisingly, blame the United States, saying the American focus on missile defenses is forcing them to develop a counterforce of new nuclear weapons and missiles.
“If Beijing’s concerns are left unaddressed, they will likely fuel more intensive Chinese efforts to modernize its nuclear forces and other strategic capabilities,” Tong Zhao, a senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy in Beijing, wrote recently.

The roots of the revival of interest in building up nuclear arsenals go back to the passage of New START a decade ago, early in the Obama administration. As the price of getting the treaty through the Senate, President Barack Obama agreed to a multibillion-dollar upgrade of the American nuclear complex, including production facilities that had been neglected for decades. At the same time, Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr., now Mr. Trump’s presumed opponent in the presidential election, said the administration would ask the Senate to ratify the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which Bill Clinton had signed but the Senate had never acted on.

Mr. Obama and Mr. Biden never sought ratification, realizing they would lose. But the past four presidents have abided by the treaty’s ban on nuclear tests. That may be coming to an end: Mr. Billingslea confirmed that the Trump administration had discussed “unsigning” the treaty and debated whether the United States should return to nuclear testing, which it has not engaged in since 1992. But he said there was no need to do so for now.

The United States conducted more nuclear tests during the Cold War than the rest of the world combined. Over decades of experimentation, and more than 1,000 tests, its bomb designers learned many tricks of extreme miniaturization as well as how to endow their creations with colossal destructive force. Compared with the atomic bomb that leveled Hiroshima, the nation’s first explosive test of a hydrogen bomb, in 1954, produced a blast 1,000 times as powerful.

Because of that history, many nuclear experts now argue that if Mr. Trump begins a new wave of global testing, it would aid American rivals more than the United States.

“We lose more than we gain,” Siegfried S. Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos weapons laboratory in New Mexico and now a professor at Stanford University, said in an interview. Beijing had conducted only 45 tests, he noted, and would welcome a resumption of testing to “increase the sophistication or perhaps the diversification” of its arsenal, “and that can only come back to be a national security risk for the United States.”

Activity at the desert testing site in Nevada has soared in recent years. There is new drilling, construction, equipment, employees and periodic “subcritical” tests, just below the threshold of producing a nuclear explosion.
For years, some Republicans have urged preparations for a test and poured money into the effort. One instrument now being prepared for the Nevada complex costs $800 million; it would test the behavior of plutonium.

Today, Republicans are still urging more upgrades and speedups, including at the Nevada complex. This month, Senator Tom Cotton, Republican of Arkansas, offered an amendment to a defense bill that would add at least $10 million to “carry out projects related to reducing the time required to execute a nuclear test.”

Top Democrats in the House told the Pentagon and the Energy Department in a recent letter that the idea of a renewal in nuclear testing was “unfathomable,” as well as “shortsighted and dangerous.”

But Mr. Billingslea thinks he succeeded in getting the Russians to think about what is happening in China, not in the Nevada desert. During his meeting last week, the Russians were taking copious notes on China’s buildup, while reviewing classified slides. He insists they want to sit down and talk more later in the summer.

They will do so without the Chinese.
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CDer:000659470
发表于 2020-07-01 11:01 | 显示全部楼层
特朗普果然是中国的川建国,这是明着“帮助”中国扩展核武库啊!
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发表于 2020-07-01 11:13 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
关键美国就是撕毁协议,有能力重建万枚弹头的规模吗?不能,扯中国有什么意义?
如果美国现在只能维持一两千枚弹头,中国有多少,关你美国鸟事?
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发表于 2020-07-01 11:19 | 显示全部楼层
兔子应该欲拒还迎让白头鹰突破核试验条框,然后我们也该验证验证新核武器理论了,万一实现干净,小型,经济,那才是真的G2争顶,这世界还是看拳头,超级大国只要内部稳定就什么不怕。
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发表于 2020-07-01 11:19 | 显示全部楼层
协议对美国来说就是草纸。别浪费时间,自己更强才是最好的协议。
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发表于 2020-07-01 11:22 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
既然美国都邀请我们达到美国相当的水平,那就赶快达到,不然多不好意思。
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头像被屏蔽
发表于 2020-07-01 14:21 | 显示全部楼层
老胡说的千枚,不是胡诌,果然有点意思。
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发表于 2020-07-01 14:29 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
美俄两国就像健身房里的大块头,一边练一边打针.中国是那个卖针的,一边练,一边卖药,一边说,我跟你们不一样,我没大块,也不打针.
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发表于 2020-07-01 19:13 | 显示全部楼层
个人看法是,如果把核武器搞到1000以上,同时逼迫美俄削减自己的核武到与中国数目相同,是可以接受的。
然后该升级核武器就继续升级。
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发表于 2020-07-01 19:26 | 显示全部楼层
把核武库规模变成跟中国一样规模,也不是不可以参与嘛
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发表于 2020-07-01 22:05 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层

Re.纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

继续闷头发展,搞出来辐射小发散快无污染的新型核弹,到时候直接管他叫新型大规模杀伤性武器,不列入核弹装进每一枚巡航导弹里去
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发表于 2020-07-01 22:38 | 显示全部楼层

RE: 纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

环保斗士毒藤女 发表于 2020-07-01 11:13
关键美国就是撕毁协议,有能力重建万枚弹头的规模吗?不能,扯中国有什么意义?
如果美国现在只能维持一两 ...

这就是扭腰时报在原则上与美帝利益“保持高度一致”的表现,别看平日里与特朗普骂来骂去的,关键问题上,站队美帝是毫不含糊的。美帝核武压毛子还是有钱有优势的,但心里老叨念着兔子的二踢脚,再加钱压兔子,军费到了“天花板”,再加就咬压死人了。所以,想把兔子拉进“限核”条约。兔子理都不理,老子就与你搞军备竞赛,怎么着?美帝在这点上是一大软肋,与俄谈判时桌上擅自插兔子国旗的小儿科都做出来了,可见急火攻心,又无可奈何。
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发表于 2020-07-01 22:43 | 显示全部楼层
对于没有信用的国家,根本没必要浪费时间
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发表于 2020-07-01 22:50 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
wuking8800 发表于 2020-07-01 14:21
老胡说的千枚,不是胡诌,果然有点意思。

美国现在至少5000到6000枚弹头,只是在发射架上的有1500多枚。老胡说的千枚其实也不够。
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发表于 2020-07-01 22:58 | 显示全部楼层
只看核弹头数量是不够的,无论是从核突袭的能力,或者对社会财富的毁灭能力来看,我们哪怕有一千五百枚核弹头,威慑力也不达标,缺乏战略轰炸机,缺乏先进的战略核潜艇,缺乏足够安全的巡航海域,人口分布也相比于美国也非常不利。不讨论美国这种撕条约比撕厕所纸快的习惯,国内参加军控由不可能取得更有优势的战略地位,有啥意义啊。
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发表于 2020-07-01 22:59 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 江河缺 于 2020-07-01 23:01 编辑

美国的核弹头就算增加十倍,对中国的威胁和现在的也一样,都是能把中国毁了的数量

但中国的核弹头数量增加十倍就不一样(按国际组织传说算现在300枚),我们就有了毁了美国的能力

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发表于 2020-07-01 23:39 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
先把美国人均核弹头达到我国人均核弹头的水平或是先把我国人均核弹头达到美国人均核弹头的水平再谈。。。。。。。。。历史人均水平
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发表于 2020-07-01 23:41 | 显示全部楼层
谁解释下,条约签订后,弹头要是藏起来了怎么查?
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发表于 2020-07-01 23:51 | 显示全部楼层

RE: 纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

xxi 发表于 2020-07-01 23:41
谁解释下,条约签订后,弹头要是藏起来了怎么查?

当然有相应的核查机制,不然所谓的技术性谈判都在谈什么呢.
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发表于 2020-07-02 00:12 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
老美想的挺美,一方面对毛子的制裁变本加厉,一方面又想利用毛子对中国施压,想利用毛子把中国拉进核裁军谈判,能给毛子多少好处?毛子可不傻,被你制裁还要帮你对付中国!
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发表于 2020-07-02 00:41 | 显示全部楼层
当初米帝撕毁协议曹县蘑菇给逼出来了。波斯也是一步之遥。
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发表于 2020-07-02 01:07 | 显示全部楼层
为了拉中国下水真是不遗余力
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发表于 2020-07-02 01:35 | 显示全部楼层
把美俄的谈下来还是把中国的谈上去?目标是啥,两人太寂寞,非要找熊猫陪聊?
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发表于 2020-07-02 02:18 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
美俄炒作这个,只是给他们跳出条约做准备。就像中导条约一样。在中国核弹头达到一万枚之前,中国不可能参加任何核裁军谈判。
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发表于 2020-07-02 07:54 | 显示全部楼层

RE: 纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

地球守护者 发表于 2020-07-01 11:22
既然美国都邀请我们达到美国相当的水平,那就赶快达到,不然多不好意思。

这个还是人均水平比较合适...毕竟本着人人平等的基础上,理应美国人均挨4倍我们的核弹头,否则我们岂不是因为人口更多,更容易被美国的核弹头杀伤?
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发表于 2020-07-02 08:28 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
核武器你俄罗斯和美国爱减不减,库存1万多枚,实际部署,大概在一千七八百左右,其他的全是维持成本。你的核武器威慑中国认,反正中国对等威慑是不够,肯定要增加。至于你们增加还是减少,随你的便。等有同等地位再说。
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发表于 2020-07-02 08:44 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
真的是川建国?     
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发表于 2020-07-02 09:14 | 显示全部楼层

RE: 纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

黑色斯塔西 发表于 2020-07-01 19:13
个人看法是,如果把核武器搞到1000以上,同时逼迫美俄削减自己的核武到与中国数目相同,是可以接受的。
然 ...

逼他们削减是不可能的,我们的办法其实很简单,把能打到美国的弹头数量提高到1500,跟美国一样,他就不再BB了。
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发表于 2020-07-02 09:55 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
哔哔猫 发表于 2020-07-02 07:54
这个还是人均水平比较合适...毕竟本着人人平等的基础上,理应美国人均挨4倍我们的核弹头,否则我们岂不是因 ...

这个不必,美国多平原,核污染易扩散,核战平原国家天生吃亏。而且美国那种木质胶合板房根本无法抵御冲击波,美国城防设施也远不如中国,核武器与美国持平即可。
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发表于 2020-07-02 10:01 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
哔哔猫 发表于 2020-07-02 07:54
这个还是人均水平比较合适...毕竟本着人人平等的基础上,理应美国人均挨4倍我们的核弹头,否则我们岂不是因 ...

美国核力量巅峰期是80年代中期,有18000枚战略核武器。60年代初虽然核武器总数更多,但战略核武器只有5000枚,大多是战术核弹,核炮弹核鱼雷核地雷之类……美国80年代中期的导弹现在也完全无法拦截,中国导弹技术肯定高于当时美国,生产能力更是秒杀当时美国
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发表于 2020-07-02 10:04 | 显示全部楼层

RE: 纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

fireeyes 发表于 2020-07-02 09:14
逼他们削减是不可能的,我们的办法其实很简单,把能打到美国的弹头数量提高到1500,跟美国一样,他就不再 ...

如果美俄不打算削自己的核武,就免谈呗。横竖胡都放出风把核武搞到1000+了,我想最后数量级也不会差很多。
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发表于 2020-07-02 12:27 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
这就是传说中的逼着中国提升核武器数量?川建国爱中国到底是有多深啊!
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发表于 2020-07-02 12:30 | 显示全部楼层
核扩军迫在眉睫了
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发表于 2020-07-02 16:31 | 显示全部楼层
没等开始谈判,美国总统就会换人了。就是谈判成功,换个总统就又不承认了!
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发表于 2020-07-02 17:24 | 显示全部楼层
没用,规则是用来限制中国发展,美国是利用规则压制对手,对美国没约束力,进退自如你毫无办法。
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发表于 2020-07-02 18:17 | 显示全部楼层

RE: 纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

漏斗子 发表于 2020-07-01 22:38
这就是扭腰时报在原则上与美帝利益“保持高度一致”的表现,别看平日里与特朗普骂来骂去的,关键问题上, ...

擅自插国旗这事真是突破下限
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发表于 2020-07-02 19:07 | 显示全部楼层
未来达到100-150枚JL-3,200DF41,100DF31AG,50DF5B/C在发射架就挺好。
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发表于 2020-07-02 21:31 | 显示全部楼层
炒作一下也好,免得丑国内部有DSB以为中国还没有核武器。
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发表于 2020-07-02 21:50 | 显示全部楼层

RE: 纽约时报:北京和华盛顿之间的一场新超级大国竞争:中国的核武库

sixxin 发表于 2020-07-01 23:51
当然有相应的核查机制,不然所谓的技术性谈判都在谈什么呢.

我就这意思,怎么个技术法?
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发表于 2020-07-02 21:52 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
ConquererSSS 发表于 2020-07-02 19:07
未来达到100-150枚JL-3,200DF41,100DF31AG,50DF5B/C在发射架就挺好。

31AG到寿后,如果没有31A+HGV的型号接替,那估计会退完,毕竟单弹头ICBM威慑能力相对有限。
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