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[原创翻译] WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

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发表于 2020-2-6 19:33 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-is-the-real-sick-man-of-asia-11580773677
The mighty Chinese juggernaut has been humbled this week, apparently by a species-hopping bat virus. While Chinese authorities struggle to control the epidemic and restart their economy, a world that has grown accustomed to contemplating China’s inexorable rise was reminded that nothing, not even Beijing’s power, can be taken for granted.

We do not know how dangerous the new coronavirus will be. There are signs that Chinese authorities are still trying to conceal the true scale of the problem, but at this point the virus appears to be more contagious but considerably less deadly than the pathogens behind diseases such as Ebola or SARS—though some experts say SARS and coronavirus are about equally contagious.

China’s initial response to the crisis was less than impressive. The Wuhan government was secretive and self-serving; national authorities responded vigorously but, it currently appears, ineffectively. China’s cities and factories are shutting down; the virus continues to spread. We can hope that authorities succeed in containing the epidemic and treating its victims, but the performance to date has shaken confidence in the Chinese Communist Party at home and abroad. Complaints in Beijing about the U.S. refusing entry to noncitizens who recently spent time in China cannot hide the reality that the decisions that allowed the epidemic to spread as far and as fast as it did were all made in Wuhan and Beijing.

The likeliest economic consequence of the coronavirus epidemic, forecasters expect, will be a short and sharp fall in Chinese economic growth rates during the first quarter, recovering as the disease fades. The most important longer-term outcome would appear to be a strengthening of a trend for global companies to “de-Sinicize” their supply chains. Add the continuing public health worries to the threat of new trade wars, and supply-chain diversification begins to look prudent.

Events like the coronavirus epidemic, and its predecessors—such as SARS, Ebola and MERS—test our systems and force us to think about the unthinkable. If there were a disease as deadly as Ebola and as fast-spreading as coronavirus, how should the U.S. respond? What national and international systems need to be in place to minimize the chance of catastrophe on this scale?
Epidemics also lead us to think about geopolitical and economic hypotheticals. We have seen financial markets shudder and commodity prices fall in the face of what hopefully will be a short-lived disturbance in China’s economic growth. What would happen if—perhaps in response to an epidemic, but more likely following a massive financial collapse—China’s economy were to suffer a long period of even slower growth? What would be the impact of such developments on China’s political stability, on its attitude toward the rest of the world, and to the global balance of power?

China’s financial markets are probably more dangerous in the long run than China’s wildlife markets. Given the accumulated costs of decades of state-driven lending, massive malfeasance by local officials in cahoots with local banks, a towering property bubble, and vast industrial overcapacity, China is as ripe as a country can be for a massive economic correction. Even a small initial shock could lead to a massive bonfire of the vanities as all the false values, inflated expectations and misallocated assets implode. If that comes, it is far from clear that China’s regulators and decision makers have the technical skills or the political authority to minimize the damage—especially since that would involve enormous losses to the wealth of the politically connected.

We cannot know when or even if a catastrophe of this scale will take place, but students of geopolitics and international affairs—not to mention business leaders and investors—need to bear in mind that China’s power, impressive as it is, remains brittle. A deadlier virus or a financial-market contagion could transform China’s economic and political outlook at any time.

Many now fear the coronavirus will become a global pandemic. The consequences of a Chinese economic meltdown would travel with the same sweeping inexorability. Commodity prices around the world would slump, supply chains would break down, and few financial institutions anywhere could escape the knock-on consequences. Recovery in China and elsewhere could be slow, and the social and political effects could be dramatic.

If Beijing’s geopolitical footprint shrank as a result, the global consequences might also be surprising. Some would expect a return of unipolarity if the only possible great-power rival to the U.S. were to withdraw from the game. Yet in the world of American politics, isolation rather than engagement might surge to the fore. If the China challenge fades, many Americans are likely to assume that the U.S. can safely reduce its global commitments.

So far, the 21st century has been an age of black swans. From 9/11 to President Trump’s election and Brexit, low-probability, high-impact events have reshaped the world order. That age isn’t over, and of the black swans still to arrive, the coronavirus epidemic is unlikely to be the last to materialize in China.
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CDer:001057676
发表于 2020-2-6 21:51 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
这些半生不熟的杂种们,狂风暴雨总有一天落到你们头上。
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CDer:001082549
发表于 2020-2-6 21:57 | 显示全部楼层
嘴巴长在它头上,随它说去吧。
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CDer:000229971
发表于 2020-2-6 22:03 | 显示全部楼层
如此大规模的疫情对产业链的冲击之严重是毫无疑问的,但对全球产业链的冲击程度现在还看不清楚,取决于这次疫情时间和海外企业对中国的信心。至于说到产业链去中国化(De-Sinicize)我觉得只要中国产业链恢复迅速,去中国化的可能性不大。

认同文章最后说的,本世纪就是连串的黑天鹅,从911到特朗普再到英国脱欧,都是小概率大影响的事件,未来还会有新的黑天鹅。
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CDer:001154142
发表于 2020-2-6 22:47 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层

Re.WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

Beijing\'s power can be taken off by granted.做梦呢,华尔街那边绝对也有股票跌了。
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CDer:001122887
发表于 2020-2-6 23:11 | 显示全部楼层
US Is the Real Sick Women of America
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CDer:000159547
发表于 2020-2-6 23:25 | 显示全部楼层
如果30年前他说这个话那就是神人,美国你不要打伊拉克不要打拉登,那都不重要,打中国才是关键。30年后再说这种话就是有蠢人,还什么产业链受冲击,无非就是几个月受到影响,加班加点几个礼拜就补上了。
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CDer:001119701
发表于 2020-2-7 00:58 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
现在上演了一出官场现形记,其实是帮助我国改正提高科学治理体制的好机会
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CDer:001110624
发表于 2020-2-7 00:58 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
看到这新闻感到愤怒的人其实有自卑心里,什么时候所有中国人看到这种新闻哈哈一笑当笑话才是真正的重返汉唐
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CDer:000350654
发表于 2020-2-7 03:04 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

surfman 发表于 2020-2-6 22:03
如此大规模的疫情对产业链的冲击之严重是毫无疑问的,但对全球产业链的冲击程度现在还看不清楚,取决于这次 ...

跟以前比,21世纪已经够和平了
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CDer:000509168
发表于 2020-2-7 04:16 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
yzsz266 发表于 2020-2-7 03:04
跟以前比,21世纪已经够和平了

就是!至少现在说这话扯蛋,20世纪两次世界大战加冷战和现在这点破事比就是毛毛雨
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CDer:001121310
发表于 2020-2-7 07:33 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层

Re.WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

灾难是人类的一部分
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CDer:000961002
发表于 2020-2-7 09:04 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
全能舰 发表于 2020-2-7 00:58
现在上演了一出官场现形记,其实是帮助我国改正提高科学治理体制的好机会

的确是这样,但我又想起战国时代,秦孝公与公孙秧,韩昭候与申不害,楚悼王与吴起,。。。。如果果谈改革吏治,这些年代事迹实在是最好的对照,。。。。
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CDer:001110880
发表于 2020-2-7 14:06 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
这次疫情是次大考
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CDer:001110880
发表于 2020-2-7 14:07 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
莫某人 发表于 2020-2-7 07:33
灾难是人类的一部分

也是考验。
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CDer:001064404
发表于 2020-2-7 14:36 | 显示全部楼层
指望敌人说啥好听的那不是开玩笑么...习以为常...只是啥时候我们的媒体也主动在美帝遇到什么灾难的时候恶心他们,攻击他们?不能总被骂而不主动骂人吧. 否则都觉得好欺负了.
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CDer:001128558
发表于 2020-2-7 15:56 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
隔壁版块已经发过了!
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CDer:000637436
发表于 2020-2-7 23:57 | 显示全部楼层
真的难以想象这次疫情会发展成这样。
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CDer:001103089
发表于 2020-2-8 08:55 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
等疫情结束后,一个一个地清算这些外国人。
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CDer:000431399
发表于 2020-2-8 18:54 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

截止2月7日全国疫情图表
20200208093403222.jpg
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CDer:000431399
发表于 2020-2-8 18:56 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

者沃尔特·罗素·米德(Walter Russell Mead)是美国文学本科出身的外交战略与政策研究者,公开资料显示他是Bard大学外交与人文科学专业的James Clarke Chace教授,此前曾在耶鲁大学教授美国外交政策。他还是《美国利益》杂志的总编辑,《华尔街日报》专栏作者,也是哈德森学院(就是彭斯经常喜欢去演讲的那个)的学者。
92e0-inzcrxs9921970.jpg
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 楼主| 发表于 2020-2-8 19:06 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

没有煤气罐 发表于 2020-2-8 18:56
者沃尔特·罗素·米德(Walter Russell Mead)是美国文学本科出身的外交战略与政策研究者,公开资料显示他 ...

他是纯鹰派
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CDer:001106191
发表于 2020-2-8 22:29 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层

Re.WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

反正我在某不可描述的个人社交账号上已经用美国瘟疫来称呼H1N1了,顺便艾特了此人
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CDer:001153197
发表于 2020-2-8 23:09 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

本帖最后由 oaixuol1214 于 2020-2-8 23:12 编辑


西方所谓的鹰派云云只是脸皮, 一旦揭开, 骨子裡无一不是法西斯, 种族主义者,
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CDer:000025463
发表于 2020-2-10 16:54 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

surfman 发表于 2020-2-6 22:03
如此大规模的疫情对产业链的冲击之严重是毫无疑问的,但对全球产业链的冲击程度现在还看不清楚,取决于这次 ...

疫情对全球产业链的冲击哪个国家都不能幸免,全球各国加强合作才是出路。
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CDer:000533739
发表于 2020-2-10 18:03 | 显示全部楼层
放弃幻想。。默默练块。。实力够用的时候。。可以看着这帮宵小一口一口把以前拉的屎吃下去。。。
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发表于 2020-2-11 09:41 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
oaixuol1214 发表于 2020-2-8 23:09
西方所谓的鹰派云云只是脸皮, 一旦揭开, 骨子裡无一不是法西斯, 种族主义者,

只是装。骨子里是一样的。
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CDer:001131932
发表于 2020-2-11 09:55 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

全能舰 发表于 2020-2-7 00:58
现在上演了一出官场现形记,其实是帮助我国改正提高科学治理体制的好机会

算是紧急事件的预演,提前查找漏洞。
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CDer:001131932
发表于 2020-2-11 09:57 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

yzsz266 发表于 2020-2-7 03:04
跟以前比,21世纪已经够和平了

20世纪那些国家领导人的上台才是真正的黑天鹅,比如希特勒。
21世纪的前20年比20世纪的前20年好多了,前者简直就是天堂。
上世纪的前20年,这个世界的人都在干嘛?
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CDer:001157482
发表于 2020-2-11 10:43 | 显示全部楼层
标题取得偏激,但是内容还是值得一看。大部分只看标题不看内容,哈哈。
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发表于 2020-2-11 11:45 | 显示全部楼层

RE: WSJ:China Is the Real Sick Man of Asia

中国空天将军 发表于 2020-2-8 22:29
反正我在某不可描述的个人社交账号上已经用美国瘟疫来称呼H1N1了,顺便艾特了此人

注意安全,,,,
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CDer:001112352
发表于 2020-2-11 14:33 | 显示全部楼层
建议中国也别背负世界责任了 折腾自己还要被别人口嗨 我们也直接学习西方先进经验躺平好了
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CDer:000483461
发表于 2020-2-11 15:34 超大游击队员 | 显示全部楼层
threebombs 发表于 2020-2-7 23:57
真的难以想象这次疫情会发展成这样。

世界列强肯定会重新审视病毒武器的价值
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CDer:000772251
发表于 2020-2-14 10:31 | 显示全部楼层
白皮的傲慢、残忍、虚伪是深入在骨子里的
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