发表于 2010-12-31 14:17
本帖最后由 shicaca 于 2010-12-31 22:13 编辑 |
1. Obamanite wrote:
What's amazing is how literally no one is thinking and/or stating the obvious regarding the advent of PAK-FA and now this Chinese thingamabob. While it is a safe assumption that neither of these aircraft aircraft are properly VLO, they are almost certainly LO to one or another degree, certainly to a greater degree than an LO-treated platform such as the Superbug. This will certainly drastically reduce the detection and engagement envelopes of American and European radars and missiles, in some cases to close to WVR. And that means the following: in a potential conflict with one side equipped with PAK-FA or J-20, and the other with F-22 and/or F-35, there will be no such thing as BVR engagements. We will be back to the days of eyeball-to-eyeball, mano-a-mano, and the certainty of mutually assured destruction via HOBS engagements. That is, provided anyone sees anybody else, very quick and deadly dogfights for both sides. It also means strikers - in whose interest it is to remain unseen and to avoid engagements - will strike with near-impunity. In other words, people, massed formations, installations, bases, infrastructure WILL be bombed. The question is not whether they will be struck and damaged, but whether they will be totally destroyed. Airborne high-value assets will be toast: what kind of CAP, with what sort of astronomical numbers, will be needed to assure that no PAK-FA and/or J-20 leaks through to down an AWACS or J-STARS-type aircraft? In such a scenario, flying command posts will simply cease to be survivable. Add to that other surveillance platforms such as Global Hawk. Gone. Toast. Only stealthy, non-emitting platforms will live to see another day, but they will be largely useless as air-to-air platforms when everyone is flying around blind. Welcome to the equivalent of airborne submarine warfare, where no one knows where the other is until they are almost literally on top of each other, at which point luck will either dictate who lives, or more probably, both die. Area-defense systems will similarly be useless, and only point-defense systems will be at all effective at trying to eyeball and engage swarms of otherwise nearly undetectable stealthy glide bombs and such, trying to to pick off as many as possible but certainly not all nor even a majority. Nifty Pandora's Box of mutually assured destruction this whole stealth business has unleashed...
12/30/2010 12:48 PM CST
可以肯定的是，这两种新飞机都不是完全隐身 (VLO) 的。他们基本上是某种程度上的隐身 (LO)，当然比隐身处理过 (LO-treated) 的现成平台要高级得多，比如超级虫子。
这必将完全降低在目视作战 (WVR) 前，西方雷达和导弹的搜索及交火窗口。
交战双方一边有PAK-FA/J-20，另一边是F-22/F35，那就没有所谓的超视距 (BVR) 交火了。我们会回到当年的瞪着眼睛看，挥着胳膊打，通过大角度摆脱（HOBS High-Angle Off-Boresight）来相互锁定摧毁对方。
这得要多少钱，多大的天文数字来确保没有PAK-FA或者（和）J-20透过我们的预警侦查系统 （AWACS/J-STARS) 溜进来？
2. Harrier wrote:
Well, the one thing I like most about the J-20 is the way it is painted black to look scary. Judging by Obamanite's comments, it has worked! The way the Chinese have controlled the release of recent pics, from super blurry to pin sharp, yet all from phones it seems, shows they know how to play this poker hand well.
12/30/2010 1:03 PM CST
3. Obamanite wrote:
Harrier, it would be foolish and dangerous to assume that neither the Chinese nor the Russians could at some future date, likely near-term, come up with a fairly advanced VLO design on a rough par with the F-22. The F-22's technology is already close to or more than 25 years-old. And one can only hope that our side has figured out a way to counter it because otherwise we're in deep doo-doo.
12/30/2010 1:12 PM CST
F-22的科技已近是差不多25年前了。我们只能寄望于我方能找到反制的办法，否则就是大祸临头了。（in deep doo-doo，直译掉进大堆屎中，形容危机将至，无力应对）
4. DMSO wrote:
It is in dark blue paint, not black. The weather of Chengdu is always foggy, for thousands of years. So it looks black on photos.
There are two prototypes, the other for static test.
It has a DSI combined with variable Caret inlet, nothing seen on other planes. Basically it has the most complicated aerodynamic features, owing probably in part to a less powerful engine compared to F22.
You still could call it a copy of whatever if you define a plane to have wings, fuel-sage, and engine.
Do not ask me questions. All the above from analysis available on Chinese websites.
12/30/2010 1:33 PM CST
5. Harrier wrote:
Obamanite - I think it may be possible that the strategic purpose of the J-20 (and DF-21D missile etc.) is to make the US think a war with China would potentially end in deep doo-doo, and so to pursue 'alternative' policies. The Taiwan Straits Crisis back in the 1990s cut deep, I think.
12/30/2010 1:43 PM CST
Obamanite，可能J-20（还有DF-21D导弹等等）的战略意图是让美国顾忌和中国的战争会最终陷入 “deep doo-doo”，只能寻求替代政策。
6. David Sullivan wrote:
The Chinese have no reason to deter anyone. No one would think of attacking them. This is an expression of nationalism and a source of power for the PLA generals. It may help sell Chinese engineering generally, weapons and Comac C919s to other countries. It may end up brining prestige to the Chinese automobile industry which is set to compete with the Europeans, Koreans and Japanese.
I don't think the U.S. is taking the possibility of war seriously. U.S. flag officers are busy getting money for their respective communities and the defense contractors who will employ them when they leave.
12/30/2010 2:10 PM CST
7. jetcal1 wrote:
Welcome to the impending fighter gap. This aircraft even if unsuccessful is a big step for China.
Their engineers will learn from this project as the industry in China is growing while every where else it is contracting. This aircraft will provide industry wide tribal knowledge within China while with an average industry age of 50 our engineers are retiring.
As far as the powerplant goes, China has the rare metals and is developing the engineers. If they are willing to not worry about SFC or engine life their engine technology is probably good enough if they can produce the number of engines needed to sustain spares.
I can’t offer an opinion on coatings, avionics or sensor fusion.
I think if I was Taiwanese, I might seriously start considering production of WMD.
12/30/2010 2:14 PM CST
8. Slider wrote:
I read a report today that stated that the Chinese government want to be self sufficient in defence from 2015, from that point they aim not to need help from outsiders.
The J-20, prototype it may be, looks like a long range, high altitude semi stealthy interceptor which may fill a gap in capability in the PLA.
12/30/2010 4:57 PM CST
9. AHP wrote:
There is no need to wonder why the PRC built this airplane. It is obvious - to project power. It is a normal and natural thing for a country to do. It is the biggest reason we, the USA, have carrier taskforces. Of course the USA have no plans to attack them. It is egotistical to think they are only doing this to counter the USA. If my memory of history is right they live in an occasionally pretty dangerous part of the world. It is also naive to think that a country that has come as far as the PRC has in the last 35 to 40 years could not produce a 4.5 to 4.75 generation stealth strike fighter. Especially the side views of the airplane in which one can see the helmeted pilot allows one to see how large this aircraft truly is. I don't mean to come back to my earlier posts but in the 50's and 60's we designed and built a similar size plane the F-111. Does any one doubt that the PRC given the time, money and effort could not build a similar aircraft with some stealth characteristics. Even if their engine designs/manufacture are not at a western level surely with the help of "friends" they can import or will come up with an approximation thereof. Of course there was probably some back engineering and probably some industrial espionage. So what about it. Which country doesn't engage in that kind of behavior from tome to time.
12/30/2010 6:30 PM CST
10. meteor wrote:
Americans tend not to think outside the box, as was evidenced by our stunned reaction to 9-11. Imagine the following:
1. China tells the world they are going to "absorb" Taiwan peacefully, just as they did Hong Kong. The Taiwanese call on the USA for help. 2. The US federal budget is only 60% funded by internal revenue. The rest is covered by borrowing, much of it from China. China calls in the US debt. The US defaults, casting the US and world economies into chaos. Social Security, military payroll, etc, don't get paid out. 3. Cyber warfare of unknown origin takes out large portions of the US electrical grid and water supplies. The internet goes down, the stock market descends into chaos, airlines can't file flight plans. 4. US recce and comm satellites are hit by Chinese missiles. 5. Chinese special forces slip ashore onto Guam and Okinawa from passing freighters. They race across Andersen and Kadena AFBs throwing satchel charges at F-22s and E-3s and KC-10s. Aircraft arriving at those airfieds are hit by MANPADS from special forces in hiding. 6. Stealthy Chinese J-20s make a sweep across Taiwan and engage Taiwanese F-16s, destroying several, who never even see the J-20s.
7. The Chinese again announce that they are going to "absorb" Taiwan peacefully, just as they did Hong Kong.
The US faces a choice: Start a major war with China over Taiwan with significant damage to the Western world and an uncertain outcome, or gracefully find a way to let the Chinese do what they want without us losing too much face.
That's where the J-20 fits in.
11. Talyn wrote:
The only similarities between the J-20 and the F-111 is that both have wings, twin engines and a fuselage. Comparisons with western designs is a moot argument.
China has well known territorial claims in the South China Sea and with Taiwan and Japan. A long-range/persistence fighter fits within Chinas'clear power projection needs.
China has the money, ability to copy foreign designs and features quickly, tens of thousands of western-educated engineers and an aggressive espionage program that has accellerated its military modernization program.
China knows what it wants and is going for it, regardless of the opinions of others. The chinese saying..."What's ours is ours, and what's yours is ours"...is very clear in the roll-out of the J-20.
12/30/2010 9:24 PM CST
12. NB wrote:
It will be interesting to see how Japan responds to the J-20. Will renewed pressure be applied to the American government to restart and export the F-22? Or, will Japan decide it has to proceed on its own, possibly with a southeast Asian partner?
12/30/2010 9:36 PM CST
13. Scubafreak wrote:
Looking at the pics of the J-20 that have surfaced, I have to say that it SCREAMS MIG 1.44, with stolen American tech grafted in. What that means for it's performance is beyond me, but it does tend to point to Russian collaboration (or some really torqed off Russian aviation designers...)
12/30/2010 9:57 PM CST
@Scubafreak; did you not read the Bill Sweetmans logg post? That something look like this, or that, doesn't mean they stole the plans nor hired the foreign engineers.
12/30/2010 11:02 PM CST